liddell vs. ortiz

who will win - liddell vs ortiz


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Russ Spence

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In case you have been living in a hole for the last few months, on December 30th, Tito “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Ortiz and Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell will do battle for the UFC Light Heavyweight title.

If the UFC is the house that Royce built, then Chuck and Tito may be the guys who have renovated the house, did some nice landscaping and then flipped the house for a nice profit. Thanks to their skill and personality, both Tito and Chuck have helped make this sport what it is today. While I can’t come up with a sure bet on who is going to win, I CAN guarantee that the MGM Grand Arena fans (including myself) will be going nuts once these two enter the Octagon. Here is a detailed breakdown of the epic fight.

Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell
Age: 36
Height: 6’2”
Weight class: 205 lbs (Light Heavyweight)
Record: 19 wins 3 losses

Liddell has won his last 6 fights by KO or TKO. Only one of those fights went past the 2nd round. Chuck has established himself as one of the premier knockout artists in the sport. He has a style that is extremely difficult to beat due to his great defensive wrestling, iron chin, underestimated footwork and the dynamite he carries in each hand.

His solid jiu-jitsu is always improving. He also gets up off the mat perhaps better than anyone in the sport. The Iceman has shown a great ability to execute his game plan against great grapplers and fighters like Couture, Horn and Sobral. Chuck has beaten Tito Ortiz before. So he will be extremely confident and calm as always going into this fight. If he hurts Tito, Chuck will most likely finish the fight right there and then.

Tito “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Ortiz
Age: 31
Height: 6’2”
Weight class: 205 lbs (Light Heavyweight)
Record: 15 wins 4 losses

Tito finds himself on a five fight win streak with 2 TKOs and 3 decision wins. Some may say that this is less impressive than Chuck’s recent dominant performances. However, it is this style of winning that can pose a problem for Chuck in the later rounds of a fight. With his fanatical training approach, Tito is happy to literally grind out wins against his opponents. Accordingly, he has found a way to win in close fights over two talented fighters, Vitor Belfort and Forrest Griffin, in those recent five wins.

Tito has dealt with a lot of adversity in his career, which has made him a more mature, focused fighter. He ran through legendary fighter Ken Shamrock with ease twice. Ortiz has shown an even more effective and aggressive style of ground and pound. He has also been improving his standup and jiu-jitsu game with some very tough fighters in his camp. Tito would want nothing more than to beat his old training partner on December 30th, getting the belt back in the process. If he drags Liddell into the later rounds, the fight may very well be to Tito’s advantage. Based on past history, Tito will usually find a way to win.

Keys to Victory: Ortiz

Tito always comes to fight in tremendous shape. He is going to have to push the pace for this fight from start to finish, but at the same time be careful not to stand toe to toe with Chuck. Since Tito is very quick, he can pick his shots and use kicks on Chuck’s wide based stance. In addition, he may find some success standing up, using this to open Chuck up for a takedown. We have not seen Chuck actively blocking leg kicks.

Tito must get Chuck to backup. He must cut off the ring to get Chuck on the ground. It is important to get a quick side mount off of the takedown or a quick pin on Chuck as soon as he is down, because Liddell pops back up very quickly off of takedowns. Keeping Chuck down while using the Ortiz ground and pound, round after round, will wear on Chuck, keeping the fight in Tito’s favor.

Tito has been working with Dean Lister for a while now, so we may even see some new submissions up Tito’s sleeve. Tito is going to have watch out for the changing left hooks, overhand right and right cross from Liddell. Chuck throws each of those punches from awkward angles. He throws a beautiful shovel punch if he is off to the side. Tito’s punches and kicks need to get the respect early on to open up the takedown. Shooting in on Chuck is very difficult, because of his long reach and wide-stanced, “hips back” style. Thus, Tito is much better off using the clinch to wear on Chuck with strikes, getting takedowns from there.

Tito likes to use the fence to get his takedowns, but Chuck likes to use the fence to get back to his feet. Immediately after the takedown, Tito should turn Chuck into the center of the ring. He needs to drag Liddell into the later rounds and look for an opportunity for a takedown and gnp stoppage. Tito has the ability to wear his opponents down. Although Tito has shown that he has a great chin, he definitely needs to keep his chin protected throughout this fight, moving his head when Chuck throws his combos. In their last fight, Tito stood and covered up. This is obviously easier said than done. Tito will need to clinch off of that, use his movement or throw an overhand right of his own to keep Chuck honest.

Key Points Summary: Take Chuck down and keep him there. Use kicks and his overhand right to offset Chuck’s lateral movement and use his strikes to set up the clinch. Cut off the ring. Drag Liddell into the later rounds but keep an active pace on the feet and on the ground. Wear Chuck down little by little, but really pour it on in the 4th and 5th rounds.

Keys to Victory: Liddell

Chuck does not need to change anything for this fight. He has had the same game plan for all of his fights. Every time he steps into the Octagon it seems his techniques have been refined.

Chuck will need to keep Tito at the end of his punches, using his excellent lateral movement to avoid the clinch or prevent getting cornered into the fence. Liddell has perfected the so called "sprawl and brawl" style of fighting. His ability to knock opponents out at weird angles is second to none.

Liddell is able to generate insane punching power in either hands when he is firmly grounded, going backwards or stepping out to the side. He throws a few different left hooks. His right hand comes in the form of a straight cross, a looping overhand or a crushing shovel punch. Liddell is content to take a few punches to land his one punch on his opponent's chin.

Liddell must avoid being on his back for too long against Tito. Tito’s elbows and active gnp are as dangerous as it gets down there. He will need to weather the storm, finding a way to reverse or get back to his feet. As soon as he gets back to his feet, it is important that Liddell takes the center of the ring and frustrates Tito with his long jab. Tito has a tendency to cover up and lift his hands high, which exposes his body for kicks or body punches. Liddell may be looking for the left hook to the liver if he sees Tito stay in place, holding his hands up too high.

Key Points Summary: Keep Tito at the end of his punches. Must prevent clinch/takedowns by using lateral movement. Employ his long reach and keep his hips back in his stance. Chuck must stay off of his back and create angles on the feet to KO Tito with his hands.

Final Questions

Is Tito coming into this fight with some new tricks?
Is Chuck Liddell motivated and training hard?
Can Chuck go 5 hard rounds with Tito Ortiz?
Can Tito deal with Chuck’s punching power?
Can Tito get Liddell to the mat and keep him there?
Will Tito stick to his game plan and avoid consistently trading with Chuck?
Can an aging Liddell deal with a Tito Ortiz in his physical prime?
 
To beat Chuck, Tito must not let his ego allow him to trade punches with Liddell.
That is doomed to failure.
Liddell has straight up knock out power in BOTH hands, and can knock you out from crazy angles too.
In other words, he just just too dam hard!

So, Tito must make Chuck fight his fight, a fight based on endurance, and ground and pound.

He must try to take, and KEEP Chuck on his back, and tire him out.

Chuck is hard not only to take down, but to keep down as well.

I think Tito is going to win this time, IF he fights his fight.

I see it going 3 rounds, with Chuck getting hurt pretty bad as he flat runs out of Gas.

He will take a lot of punishment from Tito before it is stopped, but Tito's younger age, and superior conditioning will prevail this time.

Liddell's head will be the receiver of Tito's vicious elbows, and it ain't gonna be pretty.

It is a Mistake for ANYONE to try and trade punches with Liddell.
Tito will not be so stupid this time.

Prediction - Tito by TKO in round 3
 
I really don't like him too much but the Iceman will KO him early. Liddell just finishes everybody early and his take down defense is very good. I see Tito going for an early shoot and Liddell catching him and lights out.

They say CROCOP is coming to UFC, so long Tim Sylvia.

Jeff Robison
Titan Exterior
678-360-2518
 
I really don't like him too much but the Iceman will KO him early. Liddell just finishes everybody early and his take down defense is very good. I see Tito going for an early shoot and Liddell catching him and lights out.

They say CROCOP is coming to UFC, so long Tim Sylvia.

Jeff Robison
Titan Exterior
678-360-2518
Yeah, and Vanderlei Silva would rule the UFC too.

Crocop will kick Silvia's head off
 
I agree with Jeff. Chuck's take down defense is too strong and his footwork will keep him on his feet to land his devastating striking skills.

I think Chuck's endurance is enough to hang with the younger Tito. At 36, he still looks in his prime and I believe he can go the distance.

Yes, his takedown defense is strong!
But Tito needs to commit to taking him down.
It is his only chance.

If he tries to trade with Chuck, it will be lights out!

It will be all about cardio, for it takes stamina to defend against a take down.

Perhaps, if Tito sticks to a takedown plan, Chuck will eventually tire, and a tired man's punches loose their power.

Tito must watch for uppercuts, and standing Guilloitine while trying to take Chuck down.
 
All in all a pertty good fight. Tito just can't take a punch.
 
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